©picture alliance / Anadolu | Kremlin Press Service / Handout
The United States is warning Poland that Russia may be preparing an armed provocation on Polish territory to test NATO’s resolve. According to sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, as cited by the Polish news site Onet and reported by The Telegraph, this could involve a missile or drone attack on critical infrastructure, or a limited border incursion by Russian or Belarusian military personnel.
The warning did not come out of the blue. After all, Polish sources say Washington has already informed Warsaw on several occasions about possible Russian plans on NATO’s eastern flank. A source within the Polish Ministry of Defense and a diplomat from a NATO ally also confirm that a provocation in Poland or in a Baltic state is viewed as a real risk.
According to reports, Moscow is aiming for escalation without provoking a full-scale war with NATO. Scenarios circulating include drone attacks on power plants, simulated airstrikes that would force Poland to activate its air defenses, or a small-scale incursion into Polish territory from Kaliningrad or Belarus.
Pressure on allies
The alleged Russian strategy is said to be aimed not only at undermining Poland but also at eroding Western support for Ukraine. In the most extreme scenario, Moscow would attempt to force a reduction in aid to Kyiv in exchange for a withdrawal from Polish territory during negotiations. Polish security sources also do not rule out a hybrid operation in the border region. Russia could, if necessary, portray an incursion into Polish territory as an accident—for example, due to a GPS malfunction—or as a so-called rescue operation. The aim would be to put pressure on Poland while simultaneously portraying NATO as divided and weak.
NATO on high alert
According to the sources, Russia is well aware that it cannot wage a full-scale war against NATO, because a large part of its military capacity is tied up in Ukraine. Nevertheless, they say the possibility of provocations remains serious enough to keep the allies on high alert. In such a case, NATO could respond forcefully, possibly even with direct attacks on Kaliningrad, where Russia has also stationed nuclear weapons. German Air Force Chief Holger Neumann previously stated that Germany would defend “every centimeter” of NATO territory, including Poland.
©picture alliance / Anadolu | Kremlin Press Service / Handout