© Jonathan Ford via Unsplash
The likelihood that the world will face a rare and powerful "super El Niño" in the coming months is growing. This is a natural phenomenon in which the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm significantly. According to recent models, the temperature anomaly could reach 2.5 to 4 degrees, well above the 2-degree threshold that defines a super El Niño. Such extreme events occur on average only once every ten to fifteen years and could potentially be stronger this time than the record-breaking event of 2015–2016.
El Niño occurs when trade winds weaken, causing warm water to accumulate on the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean. This disrupts ocean currents and atmospheric pressure systems worldwide. The phenomenon is self-reinforcing: warmer water weakens the winds even further, which in turn fuels the warming.
The impact is felt worldwide, especially around the Pacific Ocean. In Asia and Australia, El Niño often leads to droughts, heat waves, and wildfires, while countries on the U.S. West Coast experience increased rainfall and flooding. Typhoons can also become more powerful. In addition, El Niño typically causes an additional rise in global temperatures of 0.2 to 0.3 degrees, on top of the current warming of about 1.5 degrees. Scientists fear that the combination with climate change will further intensify the consequences, although the exact impact remains uncertain.
For Europe, the direct effects are limited. The weather here is primarily determined by other systems, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, there are indirect consequences: for example, El Niño can lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and possibly a wetter spring after the phenomenon subsides. The additional global warming may also be noticeable locally.
The economic impact of a super El Niño could be enormous and linger for years. Previous occurrences caused trillions of dollars in damage, including from crop failures, floods, droughts, and health issues. Research shows that such shocks can slow economic growth for years to come. Indirect consequences may also be felt in Europe, for example through rising prices of products such as coffee, cocoa, rice, and fruit from affected regions.
Although the exact strength and timing remain uncertain, forecasts indicate that this El Niño will continue to develop in the coming months and may not reach its peak impact until 2027.
Illustration picture: © Jonathan Ford via Unsplash